SMU Election Project: Washington

Washington Supported President-Elect Obama

2008-11-06T12:40:00.000-08:00

In Washington state, Senator-turned-President Elect Barack Obama emerged the clear victor-though some of the state's other political races are still being debated. More than 83 percent of the state's 3.6 million registered voters likely voted, said Secretary of State Sam Reed in a post-election rap up in The Seattle Times.Though a clear call had yet to be made, it appears once again that Democrat incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire beat Republican Dino Rossi by an extremely narrow margin: in 2004, she won by only 133 votes, out of more than 2.8 million cast. Rossi conceded defeat to Gregoire at noon on Nov. 5. In the Congressional race, Democrat Darcy Burner and Republican incumbent Dave Reichert appear to be locked in a dead heat, with each currently holding 50 percent of the vote. For a full report on all other Washington state voting results, visit The Seattle Times report of the elections.

For county-by-county analysis of the Presidential race, visit The Washington Post's electoral map.

Below is a video of Democrats in Seattle celebrating Barack Obama's victory.

One Day to Go: Washington Will Vote Obama

2008-11-03T09:11:00.001-08:00

It appears Sen. Barack Obama will have no problem securing the Evergreen state in the 2008 Election, as he holds a 10 point lead over competitor Republican John McCain according to Pollster.com.

Though the race has been an extremely close one, it appears the state will also remain blue in terms of its governor. Democrat incumbent Gov. Christine Gregoire holds a very slim lead over challenger Republican Dino Rossi. However, she beat Rossi to attain her position in the previous gubernatorial election by a narrow margin as well, and the state's clear support of the Democratic party in the presidential race will aid her in maintaining her lead once again.

Washington Solid Holding for Obama with Less Than 10 Days to Go

2008-10-27T20:03:00.000-07:00

RCP's Averaging polls reveal a clear win for Sen. Obama in the Evergreen state. The latest projections from the website show the Democrat leading competitor Sen. John McCain by a whopping 16 points.

The increasingly blue state is also likely to reelect its Democrat Governor, Christine Gregoire, over challenger Republican Dino Rossi, with RCP polls showing the incumbent with a roughly 5 point lead over Rossi, who she previously bested in the 2004 election by an extremely thin margin. Washington, it should be said, has not elected a Republican as governor since 1980.

The most undeterminable race in the state may be that in the Senate between incumbent Republican Dave Reichert and challenging Democrat Darcy Burner, which RCP polls still show as a "toss-up." The web site's assessment of the race has this to say:

Ask the average voter in this suburban Seattle district and Rep. Dave Reichert is not a member of Congress, he's still the sheriff. That image has kept the Republican in office in a district Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore won. 2006 nominee Darcy Burner is back and raising more money than she did two years ago, but Reichert is a survivor, and beating him will be difficult.

Seattle Times Editorial: Rossi and Obama?

2008-10-27T19:17:00.000-07:00

The following article is an October 21 Editorial by Seattle Times contributor Lynne Varner, who hypothesizes about the reasons Washington voters appear to be supporting Democrat Barack Obama for President and Republican challenger Dino Rossi for Governor. Read more at the Seattle Times website.

I don't believe strange bedfellows make for good politics.
In leadership positions I tend to vote single-party to ensure unity and strong teamwork. Seems I'm in a growing minority. More than a few voters are indicating a preference for a Democrat in the White House and a Republican at the helm of our state.

I spent a recent evening trying to get a fix on this. At the local level, it appears to be a quest for political balance. Electing Dino Rossi may be some voters way of keeping the tax-and-spend Democrats running the Legislature held in check by a fiscally conservative governor. The weakness of this argument is that fiscal restraint is not a virtue held only by Republicans.

The best way to get things done is to move past partisanship. Lawmakers of like mind and goals are more likely to spend time on the important details that turn ideas into policy.

Readers wonder why I don't invoke the same argument on behalf of Republican leadership. Two wars and a tattered economy keep me from making such an argument on the national front. Locally, I support where Gov. Christine Gregoire has taken our state. Rising costs, including energy, fuel and healthcare, made the governor spend more than even a tax-and-spend liberal would be comfortable with. Gregoire has made investments in education, healthcare coverage for children, social services and other areas. This has certainly raised the level of government spending but for things I believe necessary. I don't want someone who would go in an opposite direction.

But as the saying goes politics makes for strange bedfellows, underscoring that there's plenty of room for opinion on this. Fire away.

From The Seattle Times: Burner loans campaign $140,000 for ads

2008-10-27T19:13:00.000-07:00

According to a story in The Seattle Times:

Democrat Darcy Burner loaned her campaign $140,000 last week, just days after her campaign reported record-breaking fundraising numbers in her race against U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert in the 8th Congressional District.

Burner raised $1.2 million in three months, according to a campaign filing last week. That's more than double what her Republican opponent raised in the third quarter of this year. The windfall attracted national media attention in one of the most competitive House races in the country.

From Today's USA TODAY: Deep political divide splits Washington state

2008-10-27T18:59:00.000-07:00

Today's USA TODAY:"50 Days, 50 States" column assesses the implications of the heated gubernatorial race between Incumbent Democrat Gov. Christine Gregoire and challenger Republican Dino Rossi for the state's position on the Presidency in 2008. Read the piece below, and visit USA Today's Washington State Website for charts, district maps, and recent polls from Washington State.

By William M. Welch, USA TODAY

RENTON, Wash. — If this election is about change, as Barack Obama and John McCain say, Democrats here in Washington state are asking voters not to go too far.
An increasingly blue state on the national electoral map, Washington hasn't voted for a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

50 STATES/ 50 DAYS: Read the full series
Washington is more evenly split politically when it comes to local politics, and a close rematch in the governor's race is proving that once again.

First-term Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire, 61, who won by 133 votes out of 2.8 million cast, is facing the man she beat in 2004, Republican Dino Rossi, in a tough re-election fight.

"It's hard to be running with a national message of change and still turn around and say, 'We don't want any here,' " says Cathy Allen, a Democratic political consultant in Seattle.

Rossi, a former state senator, has been hitting Gregoire with calls for change in TV ads. Rossi, 49, points out that under Gregoire, the state has seen higher unemployment, an increase in the gasoline tax, rising business failures and a $3.2 billion deficit.

"If this is what Chris Gregoire did in four years, do you really want to see what she can do in eight?" one Rossi ad asks.

Gregoire has been countering with the difference between the two on social issues. A former state attorney general, she points out in ads that Rossi opposes abortion: "In these tough times, don't turn back the clock. Dino Rossi is not the change we need."

The two campaigns are spending more than $20 million, making it impossible to miss their TV ads and creating dismay among some voters.

"I really don't want to vote for either one," says Kristen Ballou, a mother from Kent who supports McCain. "The governor's race is ugly."

Washington's politics reflect a divide between Seattle, overwhelmingly Democratic and liberal, and the area east of the Cascade Mountains, where Republicans tend to do well and at least one poll shows Rossi besting Gregoire 2-1.

Both presidential and governor's races may be decided in this in-between battleground east of Seattle and Lake Washington.

It is an area whose residents include Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder. It includes the high-tech, high-growth city of Bellevue, and Renton, where Boeing produces its 737 jetliners.

Interviews with voters here showed sharp divisions over the presidential race but also a willingness among many voters to split their tickets.

"The last two years, I have been very disgusted with where we've ended up," says Jason Thiry, 31, a regional vice president of a carpeting company from Renton who voted for President Bush four years ago.

This time, he says he and his wife will support Obama. But the Democratic governor has not completed her sale to Thiry, who holds her accountable for the region's economic problems.

"It's pretty bad. It's on her watch, too," he says.

Rachael Clemmons, 33, a nurse from Renton, is eager to vote for Obama. She has a 6-year-old daughter with a heart condition and says keeping her health insurance is her biggest concern.

Gregoire cannot yet count on her vote. "I see all these ads on TV, and I don't know what to believe," she says.

Sometimes the ads can have unintended effects.

Tharon Knittle, 35, a mother from Renton supporting McCain, said she decided to vote for Rossi for governor because she saw ads saying he opposes abortion — ads run by Gregoire, his opponent. Knittle says she figures if Rossi opposes abortion, as she does, "the other policies will fall in line more with what I feel."

Yet Rossi hasn't completed the sale with some McCain voters.

Robert Johnston, 51, a writer and transplanted Southerner now in Renton, says he has followed the campaign closely and is "leaning toward McCain."

"He's been tried by fire, and I think our country needs the experience, integrity and courage McCain has to offer," Johnston says. Yet he is attracted to Gregoire by her character as well.

"I'm a conservative in a lot of areas, but I have a real high opinion of Gov. Gregoire and her honesty," Johnston says. "There is something about her — I think her integrity is unquestioned."

Two October polls, by Survey USA and Rasmussen, show Gregoire ahead by 1 and 2 percentage points respectively, within the margins of error.

Still, the prospect of Obama voters turning the Democratic governor out of office is alarming to her partisans, local political observers say.

Luke Esser, state Republican Party chairman, says straight-ticket voting isn't expected in Washington, where voters don't register by party: "In this state, it's every candidate for him or herself," he says.

Washington Poll: Gregoire leads Rossi 51 to 45

2008-10-27T18:56:00.000-07:00

The latest Washington Poll of 600 registered voters, conducted October 18 to 26, shows Gov. Chris Gregoire leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi by a 48-43 margin. When leaners are included, Gov. Gregoire’s lead increases slightly to 51-45. That’s the second public poll in a row to suggest the race may be breaking toward Gov. Gregoire after months in a virtual deadlock.

Other findings from the poll: Barack Obama leads John McCain 55-34, I-1000 leads 56-38, I-1029 leads 65-20, Prop 1 leads 50-43, and I-985 remains a toss-up at 45-43.

Update: Judge Rules Rossi Must Be Deposed Before Election

2008-10-27T18:54:00.001-07:00

King County Superior Court Judge Paris Kallas ruled today that Dino Rossi has to testify in the lawsuit filed by two former Washington State Supreme Court justices alleging that he illegally coordinated with the BIAW to raise money for his election campaign.

Rossi will face questioning on Wednesday from attorney Knoll Lowney.

GOP On Thin Ice Legally In Washington State

2008-10-27T18:43:00.000-07:00

From HorsesAss.org, A Washington State Political Blog:

The Washington State Democrats filed a complaint with the Public Disclosure Commission on October 24 asking them to investigate the Republican media firm Media Plus. Media Plus gets its ad time on credit from TV stations, and the Democrats believe this constitutes an illegal loan to Media Plus’ political clients.

The complaint follows on the heels of a different complaint filed at the federal level by Democratic candidate for U.S. Congress, Darcy Burner, whose lawyers alleged on Wednesday that Media Plus gave an illegal loan to Rep. Dave Reichert’s campaign by fronting him TV time.

The Oct. 24 release from the Washington State Democrats, who have identified GOP candidates Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna (Attorney General), and Douglas Sutherland (Commissioner of Public Lands) as recipients of Media Plus’ loans, says:

“By purchasing their ads on credit, the campaigns of Republicans Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna, and Doug Sutherland gain an unmistakable advantage, relieving them of the requirement to actually ‘purchase’ media time and giving them a slush fund at the most crucial part of the campaign season,” said Dwight Pelz, Chair of the Washington State Democratic Party. “If Media Plus buys hundreds of thousands of dollars of advertising time ‘on credit’ for Republican candidates during the last week of the election, what happens when those candidates don’t win and can’t pay? This practice needs to end immediately.”

And in Other GOP Legal Hot Water News…

King County Superior Court Judge Paris Kallas ruled today that the lawsuit alleging illegal coordination between Dino Rossi and the BIAW’s fundraising efforts can go forward.

Kallas will decide next week if Dino Rossi will be deposed. Rossi’s deposition could be scheduled next Wednesday.

Obama Leads in Washington State by 10 Point Margin

2008-10-06T16:00:00.000-07:00

As the election moves closer and closer, Obama solidifies his lead in Washington State, according to the lastest Rasmussen Reports.

Washington: Obama Pulls Ahead by 10
Friday, October 03, 2008

Barack Obama has regained his solid lead over John McCain in Washington, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state. The Democrat now leads his opponent 53% to 43%.

The race now resembles that of previous surveys before McCain managed to close the gap early last month following his surprise naming of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Support for the Democrat this month ties his previous high reached back in June.

Washington has cast its 11 Electoral College votes for Democratic candidates in each of the last five elections. In 2004, John Kerry took the state by a 53% to 46% margin.

Though both candidates draw heavy support from their own parties in Washington, unaffiliated voters are still fairly evenly divided. Obama has a 48% to 44% advantage over McCain among those voters. Obama also leads 51% to 45% among men and 54% to 40% among women in the state (Premium Members can view full demographic crosstabs).

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Washington voters and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s ratings are 59% favorable, 39% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a 91.8 % chance of winning Washington in November. At the time this poll was released, Washington was rated “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

The gubernatorial race rematch between incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire and GOP challenger Dino Rossi is now a tie.

Washington voters hold the vice presidential nominees in a less flattering light than their running mates. Joseph Biden earns favorable opinions from 54% and unfavorable opinions from 39%. Palin is viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 51%.

When it comes to the struggling economy, Washington voters trust Obama more than McCain to handle the issue by a 50% to 41% margin. Most voters (54%) say creating economic growth is the more important policy goal, while 34% say that of reducing the gap between rich and poor. Voters overwhelmingly believe McCain sees economic growth as more important, while the majority also believes Obama’s top economic goal is reducing the income gap.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Just nine percent (9%) of voters in Washington give the current U.S. economy good or excellent ratings, while 56% rate it as poor. Most (83%) believe the economy is getting worse, while only five percent (5%) think it's getting better.

The candidates are nearly even on the issue of national security, an issue McCain generally holds the advantage on nationwide. In Washington, voters trust Obama slightly more by a 48% to 46% margin.

Nationally, Obama has managed to hold a steady lead over McCain over the past week in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. LINK

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 29% of voters in Washington, while 55% rate his job performance as poor.

In Washington, Older Voters Dominated Primaries

2008-09-24T13:44:00.000-07:00

Older voters participated more in state's August primary

By Susan Gilmore
Seattle Times staff reporter
If the primary-election turnout is any indication, Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi will need to court older voters if they hope to win the governor's race in November.

Results from August's primary found that voter participation increased substantially with age.

Turnout among those 18 to 24 was the lowest, just 18 percent, while turnout for those over age 65 was the highest at 72 percent, according to the Secretary of State's Office.

Statewide, 18- to 24-year-olds made up between 2 and 5 percent of all who voted, depending on the county. Voters age 65 and older made up between 27 and 47 percent of all who voted, depending on the county.

In all, there was a 42 percent turnout in the primary, with nearly 1.5 million votes cast. That was a little below the average turnout of 44 percent in a presidential-year primary, but Washington's primary was different this year.

Not only was it moved up to August, but the state also used for the first time its top-two primary system, in which the top two vote-getters go on to the general-election ballot regardless of political party.

Statewide, the highest voter turnout was in Columbia County, at almost 67 percent. Counties with turnout over 60 percent were Jefferson, Lincoln and San Juan.

Fifteen other counties had turnout over 50 percent: Clallam, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Grays Harbor, Island, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pend Oreille, Skagit, Stevens and Wahkiakum.

King County reported the lowest turnout in the state, at 35 percent, while Snohomish County had 42 percent and Pierce County 41 percent.

King and Pierce counties are the only two that do not conduct all-mail elections, and that could be one reason why turnout was so low in the two counties.

According to the Secretary of State's Office, there are 452,000 people registered in King and Pierce counties who haven't signed up for absentee ballots. Of those, just 72,356, or 16 percent, went to the polls.

Of the 2.96 million absentee voters in the two counties, 47 percent voted.

David Motz, manager of voter services for the state, can't explain why King County's turnout was so low, but he said it may be because the county still uses polling places.

Voters are more likely to vote "if the ballot is still sitting on the counter at home," Motz said.

Sherril Huff, King County elections director, also said turnout is driven by issues.

"When we have high-profile issues that have received a lot of media attention and for which voters are highly concerned, we experience better participation. Even though the governor's race was on the ballot, voters know the decision will be made with November's vote," Huff said.

Motz said he was surprised that turnout wasn't higher in the primary among young voters, particularly since there's been a surge of voter registration. The secretary of state sends letters to those turning 18, telling them how to register to vote, and Motz said about 20 percent of those residents actually register because of the birthday card.

Susan Gilmore: 206-464-2054 or sgilmore@seattletimes.com

Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company

Washington State sues Gubernatorial Candidate over Party Affiliation on Ballots

2008-09-24T13:29:00.000-07:00

Democrats sue to make Rossi call himself "Republican" instead of "GOP"

By Andrew Garber
Seattle Times Olympia bureau

OLYMPIA — A hearing has been scheduled for Friday at 9 a.m. in King County Superior Court on a lawsuit filed Tuesday by the state Democratic Party which is attempting to force gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi to list his party preference on the November ballot as "Republican" instead of "GOP Party."

Democrats say the Iraq War and low approval ratings for President Bush have left the Republican Party a damaged brand and that Rossi is trying to distance himself by using GOP as his affiliation.

Rossi is running against Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire. He lost to Gregoire by 133 votes in the 2004 election, and polls show this race to be close as well.

Polls by Stuart Elway have suggested many people don't know that GOP and Republican mean the same thing. One recent Elway poll indicated Rossi did better among voters if he used the "GOP" label instead of "Republican."

"There's no question we were shocked by the Elway poll," state Democratic Party Chairman Dwight Pelz said, adding that an internal poll by the party had a similar finding.

"We believe the law is being broken, and we're asking the court to step in and fix it," he said.

The lawsuit, filed in King County Superior Court, names Secretary of State Sam Reed as the defendant.

State Republican Party Chairman Luke Esser questioned Elway's poll results. He also said the lawsuit is frivolous and that the party will step in to defend Rossi in court if needed.

"The idea that people don't know Dino Rossi is a Republican is just ridiculous," Esser said, noting that Gregoire's campaign and supporters have spent millions of dollars on ads making that clear.

A statement issued by Rossi's campaign called the lawsuit "an act of a desperate incumbent." Rossi has said that he's used the term GOP for years and isn't trying to confuse voters.

GOP stands for Grand Old Party, a nickname the Republicans picked up in the 1870s. The phrase is often used by the news media when referring to Republicans, but it hasn't served as an official party designation on an election ballot, until now.

The state's new top-two primary "says a candidate may list whatever party preference the candidate wishes," Reed said. "One person did Salmon Yoga Party."

According to the Secretary of State's office, 25 candidates on the ballot in November list GOP, rather than Republican Party, next to their names. One candidate lists Grand Old Party.

Reed, a Republican, earlier this year said he'd advised some candidates, including state Attorney General Rob McKenna, to use Republican Party instead of GOP.

"I just think it's clearer to the voters and actually a little more respectful in some ways to give the full party name," Reed said at the time.

On Tuesday, Reed said he did advise candidates that if "they wanted to be taken seriously they shouldn't be making up names."

But Reed said he never specifically objected to using GOP and has used it himself on campaign signs.

Reed also said Democrats could have challenged this in court months ago.

"The time to object was before candidate filings in the first week of June," he said. "Now counties have actually sent their ballots to the printers. The timing is really bad for an issue we thought had been pretty well resolved earlier."

Pelz said he's confident the courts will rule the issue is more "important than whether two to three small counties have started to print their ballot. I know they haven't started to print in King County."

However, King County elections officials said their ballots are indeed at the printers and several thousand already have been printed.

Andrew Garber: 360-236-8268 or agarber@seattletimes.com

Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company
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For more information on this story, visit the Associated Press version of this story:

GOP or Republican? Democrats sue Washington state over how ballot describes opponent

50 days out, Washington looks promising for Obama

2008-09-15T19:06:00.000-07:00

With 50 days to go until Election Day 2008, it appears likely that Washington state's 11 electoral votes will go to the Democratic Candidate for President, Sen. Barack Obama. Though Obama leads Republican Sen. John McCain by a margin of only 4.7 in the most recent polls of the state (with 48.0 percent to Mccain's 43.3 percent), several important factors suggest that this trend will continue and strengthen.

Firstly, Washington state has voted Democratic in every election since 1984, when it supported Republicans Ronald Reagan and running mate George H. Bush over Democrats Mondale and Ferraro. The state's current governor, Christine Gregoire, is a democrat, as are its two US Senators, Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray. Additionally, Democrats in Washington make up about 75% of the total number of elected officials in the seperate categories of U.S. House Representatives, State Senators, and State Representatives. Washington's Democratic Primaries revealed a strong base of Obama supporters as the Illinois Senator emerged the clear victor with 66 percent of the vote, trailed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 31 percent, and 1 percent voting otherwise. The result of the Republican Primaries was far less clear in the state, showing McCain coming in first with 26 percent, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee a hardly-distant second with 24 percent, and dark-horse candidate Congressman Ron Paul of Texas almost as close behind with 22%. Washington's emphasized concern on environmental issues serves as another strong indicator of the likelihood of an Obama vote.

A Brief Background on Washington's Political Climate

2008-09-14T23:52:00.000-07:00

Washington joined the Union in November 1889. The state has gone through periods during which it voted primarily Democratic and other periods where Republicans usually won. Democrats have been the victors in the last five elections and the state is expected to lean to the Democratic side again in 2008. In 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by a 53% to 46% margin. The state’s electoral influence has grown in recent decades; in the western half of the country only Texas and California have more than Washington’s 11 electoral votes.